The Free World Must Stay the Course on Ukraine

Europeans were inspired by the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Warsaw and Kyiv in February. Biden reaffirmed that while the United States is far away, it is committed to freedom in Europe—and understands, as we do, that Ukraine is fighting for the freedom of all of us.

Ukraine does not want to be at war with Russia. Nor do we. But it has become increasingly clear that Russia decided a long time ago that it is at war with us. For many years, the Kremlin has systematically undermined international stability and security by violating international law, using or threatening to use force, and undermining democratic institutions through political and hybrid warfare. Its act of aggression against Ukraine is merely the most extreme expression of these ongoing actions.

Our call should be taken seriously: if Russia wins and Ukraine falls, central Europe may well be next. Accordingly, defeating Russia now, in Ukraine, will reduce the chances of Ukraine’s backers’ having to spill their own blood and further treasure later. It will send a clear message that frozen conflicts and endless wars have no place in our region. And it will make clear to tyrants everywhere that aggression will not be rewarded and dictators will not be permitted to carve the planet into spheres of their evil influence.

That is also why we must continue supporting Ukraine until Russian forces withdraw from its territory entirely, putting a definitive end to the Kremlin’s revanchism and imperialism. Ending the war with Russia still in possession of Crimea and territories in eastern Ukraine would be like issuing an open invitation to all authoritarian lunatics who think that it is OK to invade their neighbors on the basis of fabricated, hateful narratives, killing hundreds or thousands of innocent civilians in the process.

In short, peace can come only on Ukraine’s terms. Freezing conflicts is Russia’s favorite way of buying time, by pretending to end a war that it started. A frozen conflict would not bring stability or improve security or economic conditions in the long run. Rather, it would allow Russia to regroup and rebuild its forces while continuing to wage political warfare and export its imperial ideology.

ON THE FRONTLINES

We are proud that Europe has stood together in the face of Russian aggression. Throughout our own history, we have experienced Russia’s revanchism, totalitarianism, occupation, deportations, and massacres. For many years, central Europeans have warned against these dangers. As leaders from the states that are on the frontlines of this broader fight, we knew from day one that our countries have a particularly central role to play. Our history has also taught us that it is important to stand up against evil and support those who fight back. That is why the leaders from our region were the first to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky in besieged Kyiv.  It is also why our nations have taken in millions of refugees—and from the first days of the Russian invasion, shipped military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

We are also encouraged that the war has injected new energy into the transatlantic alliance. Many NATO members are doing more now to increase defense spending and modernize their armed forces than at any time in the history of the alliance. As we adopt new commitments at the alliance’s Vilnius summit in July, we must continue to upgrade our defense plans and increase the readiness of our forces. It is clear that our shared security will require even more resources, both financial and human, to keep our military and technological edge in the future. Europeans have shown that they are able to carry their fair share of the burden; our military support to Ukraine also means that we help our own defense industries, making the transatlantic alliance stronger. This is an important principle of our help: aiding Ukraine does not mean eroding our own defense capabilities.

Now is not the time to lessen our resolve. As the fight on the battlefield intensifies this spring, we look toward the summer and fall. We must continue to stand by Ukraine without qualification or reservation. That includes making sure that it receives all the weapons and financial assistance it needs to defeat Russia and fully restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is a legitimate request by Ukraine’s democratically elected government. Our military support so far has proved vital in combat. Given Russia’s indiscriminate shelling and targeting, no type of conventional weapon should be excluded a priori. And while we agree that it matters what type of weapons are supplied, sometimes it’s even more critical how quickly and courageously we make these decisions. Every hesitation, every delay is dangerous for Ukraine. Giving it the leverage it needs to win is the best way to avoid protracted war. And we should remember that the people of Ukraine are watching our recurring discussions about the type of weapons we hesitate to ship; as some of us might be tempted by war fatigue, the Ukrainians continue to defend their country and their lives.

We welcome the recent indictment of Russian President Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court; it is important that the court continue to investigate war crimes committed in Ukraine. But it is also time to establish a special tribunal that will hold the Russian top leadership accountable for the crime of aggression it has committed. We have heard Ukraine's call, and the Council of Europe, EU institutions, and more than 30 countries have expressed their support for setting up an ad hoc international criminal tribunal that would have this mandate. We are also proposing the confiscation of Russian assets and reserves, which are estimated at $350 billion to $400 billion in the West. These funds could, and should, be used for the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine.

AFTER THE WAR

Nor is it too early to plan for Ukraine’s postwar security guarantees. There will be no investment and sustainable reconstruction in Ukraine unless it is able to defend itself against future aggression.

The future of European security must be based on a solid foundation, with NATO as the anchor of a transatlantic community that promotes democratic values, security cooperation, and peaceful resolution of disputes. At its upcoming summit in Vilnius, NATO will have to answer difficult yet unavoidable questions about the alliance’s future, including its relationship to Ukraine and its future strategy on Russia. In 2008, the allies decided that Ukraine’s future (along with Georgia’s) should involve membership in NATO. Now is the time for the alliance to lay out a clear and credible path for Ukraine’s membership, if and when Kyiv wishes and when conditions allow. And until then, we must be ready to provide security guarantees, beyond political assurances, that prevent Ukraine from becoming a gray zone once and for all. Gray zones create opportunities for authoritarian regimes to sow instability and heighten tensions.

As for Russia, it is fair to say that our longstanding dual-track approach—one that includes both deterrence and dialogue—needs an upgrade. Yet deterrence and strength must be at the core of our posture; dialogue can serve as a tool to communicate determination and to resolve tensions but should not be considered an end in itself. For many years, we have patiently shared our views and disagreements with Russia in various contexts, including the NATO-Russia Council, to little effect. Talking to a wall will not bring a change in Russian behavior. Faced with a defunct dialogue, NATO, as a political-military alliance, must be prepared to adjust its strategy on the go. Seventy-six years ago, in this magazine, George Kennan called for a policy of containment toward the Soviet Union. Similar principles can be applied today, with military strength, hard-hitting sanctions, Russia’s isolation, and transatlantic unity serving as key tenets of our strategy.

We also share Washington’s concern for freedom and security in the Indo-Pacific. Security is a global challenge, as is our common fight for democracy and freedom. If Europe is to remain whole and free, American involvement and leadership will remain crucial. Yet resolve in support of Ukraine will also help deter aggression in other parts of the world, sending the message that tyrants will not be appeased, be it in Europe, Asia, or anywhere else. That message will be especially clear when Ukraine wins and Russia is defeated.

History has its moments, and this is one of them. That is why we in Europe have stepped up to do more, in service of a united Europe and a renewed transatlantic relationship. And it is why we must stay the course in Ukraine, defeating the dark forces of revanchism and supporting Kyiv until victory.