Oldřich Krpec, Martin Chovančík, and Adriana Ilavská in EJIS: How to Turn OSINT into a Strategic Analysis Tool
Oldřich Krpec, together with Martin Chovančík and Adriana Ilavská, published an article in the European Journal of International Security that presents a framework for transforming freely available data (OSINT) into a practical strategic analysis tool. Using the example of Russian arms production, the authors show that even in conditions of wartime uncertainty, a solid degree of analytical accuracy can be achieved by cross-validating official proclamations, expert estimates, and visually confirmed battlefield losses. The methodology makes it possible to independently identify the real limits of industrial production for systems such as modern tanks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers without having to rely on traditional, costly, and often unavailable intelligence sources.
The findings also suggest that Russian arms production in 2023 and 2024 was often exaggerated not only by Kremlin propaganda but also by parts of the Western expert community, which may have reinforced the image of Russia's extraordinary industrial resilience.
The full article is available here .
